AVERAGE DAILY TURNOVER SET A NEW RECORD, AND THE EXCESS OF FOREX SUPPLY OVER DEMAND INCREASED
Average daily turnover increased
There were, in total, 68 trade sessions in the third quarter of 2002, ending with an accumulative turnover equivalent to US$26.78 billion. The average daily turnover was US$ 394 million with an increase of 30.64 per cent over last quarter and 30.70 per cent over the same period last year. The average daily turnover of USD and HKD increased, while those of JPY and EUR decreased as compared with last quarter. When compared with the same period last year, the average daily turnover of USD, HKD and JPY all increased.
USD moved upward,
HKD fluctuated within a narrow range, JPY fluctuated down, and EUR declined
USD moved upward gradually in the third quarter. At the beginning of this quarter, the weighted average price of USD was 8.2770. The lowest weighted average price was 8.2766, and the highest was 8.2772, which occurred on September 5th. On the last trading day of this quarter, the weighted average price leveled off at 8.2772, one bp higher than that of last quarter.
HKD had a steady walk this quarter, it jumped in the middle ten days of July and then fluctuated between 1.0607 and 1.0609. The weighted average price of HKD at the beginning of this quarter was 1.0606, the highest was 1.0609, the lowest was 1.0605, and ended up at 1.0608, two bps higher than 1.0606 at the end of last quarter.
JPY went down gradually. At the beginning of this quarter the weighted average price was 6.9145. It reached its highest at 7.1279, and then went downward to its lowest at 6.6896 on September 24th. The weighted average rate of JPY ended up at 6.8130, 1,126 bps lower than that of last quarter, 6.9256.
There were seven days without the trading of EUR, and EUR also went downward. At the beginning of this quarter, the weighted average price of EUR was 8.1390. After having dropped for several days, it rose to its highest at 8.3595, and then sank again. On August 12th, EUR reached its lowest weighted average price, 8.0834, and ended up at 8.0926, 914 bps lower than that of last quarter.
The excess of
supply over demand expanded
Compared with the second quarter of 2002, both the average daily supply and demand in the interbank forex market increased this quarter. The excess of supply over demand on the market increased by US$ 6.86 billion as compared with last quarter and the average daily excess increased by 39.08 per cent and 27.85 per cent respectively as compared with the second quarter and the same period of last year.
Summary of interbank forex deposits
In this quarter, twenty-two domestic and foreign banks as well as non-bank financial institutions were involved in interbank forex deposits with an accumulative turnover of US$136 million, HK$170 million and EUR 27.22 million. The most frequent trading varieties were the 1-week and 1-month, and lending rates were a bit lower than those in international markets.
Brief analysis
The economy continued to grow
The GDP in the first half of 2002 increased by 7.8 per cent, while in the second quarter it increased by 8.0 per cent. From January to August, the accumulative national industrial added value grew by RMB 1,996.2 billion yuan, 12 per cent over the same period of last year. The data showed that, in August, national industrial added value reached RMB 263.4 billion, 12.7 per cent higher over the same period last year, growing at the same rate as in July. This demonstrates a rapidly growing trend. On the other hand, fixed asset investments in the first eight months grew by 24 per cent, which was also a supplement to economic growth.
Foreign investment kept flourishing
The utilized FDI in the first 8 months of 2002 was US$34.44 billion, 25.52 per cent higher over the same period in 2001, and the contracted FDI was US$62.31 billion, 42.42 per cent higher over the same period in 2001.
Foreign trade
continued its favorable balance and the foreign exchange reserve remained
abundant
According to the preliminary statistics of Maritime Customs, the sum of import and export in the first 8 months was US$383.49 billion, with an increase of 16.1 per cent over the same period last year. The favorable balance was US$17.90 billion, 59.2 per cent more than that of the same period last year. The foreign exchange reserve was US$253 billion at the end of August 2002, providing a firm support to the stable exchange rate of RMB. (by Wu Jingjing)