US DOLLAR TRANSACTIONS PERFORMED ACTIVELY EXCESS OF FOREX SUPPLY OVER DEMAND INCREASED
There were total 18 sessions of trade in May 2002, ending up with a turnover of 6.04 billion accumulatively in US dollar term. The average daily turnover was US$336 million, with a substantial increase of 60.3 per cent over April. The average daily turnover in May increased by 38.2 per cent as compared with the same period of 2001.
The average daily turnover of USD went up sharply as compared with April, while those of HKD, JPY and EUR declined to some extent. Compared with the same period of 2001, the average daily turnover of USD, HKD and JPY all increased considerably.
The USD kept declining in May 2002. The weighted average price of USD on the first trading day of the month was 8.2773---the highest price in the month, and then gradually went down with a slight rebound in the last ten days. The USD dropped sharply at the end of the month and ended up with 8.2765 which was the lowest price in the month, eight bps lower than that of April.
Generally speaking, the HKD went down slightly in May. At the beginning of the month, the weighted average price of HKD was 1.0606, which proved to be the basis level of the month, because in nine out of eighteen working days of the month the average prices kept at this level. The highest weighted average price in the month was 1.0607 and the lowest 1.0604, which was on May 31, two bps lower than 1.0606 at the end of April.
Being influenced by the international market, the JPY rose significantly in May. The weighted average price of JPY on the first trading day of the month was 6.4594, and declined on the next day to 6.4274, the lowest price in the month, and afterwards climbed steadily to the highest weighted average price 6.7078 at the end of the month, 2482 bps higher than that of April.
The trade of EUR was slack with no transaction on May 20 and May 30, and the price of EUR followed the pattern of JPY, continuously going up this month. The weighted average price of EUR on the first trading day of the month was 7.5584, dropped to the lowest 7.4578 in the middle of May, and reached the highest 7.7603 at the end of the month, 2795 bps higher than that of April.
Compared with April, both the average daily
supply and demand on the interbank forex market grew remarkably in May. The
excess of supply over demand on the market increased US$1.086 billion as
compared with April. The average daily excess increased by 75 per cent as
compared with April and by 140 per cent as compared with the same period of
2001.
The domestic economy grew steadily. Statistics showed that in April industrial profitability turned up, retail sales increased while CPI declined by 1.3 per cent as compared with the same period of 2001, consumption lessened and the pressure of deflation increased.
Foreign trade kept growing, but with some unfavorable conditions. The sum of export and import in the first four months of this year was US$174.52 billion, with an increase of 10.5 per cent over the same period of 2001. Statistics reflected that the foreign-funded enterprises became the major players while the import and export of the state-owned enterprises declined.
Foreign investment increased year-on-year, though with less cheerful prospect. The newly contracted FDI declined straightly by 1.9 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 19.5 per cent, in February, March and April respectively. The decline in contracted FDI will have a negative influence on the increase of utilized FDI in the second half of this year.
The prospect of USA's economy remained
unclear. The performance of USA's economy in the first quarter was unexpectedly
strong. At the same time, opposite evidences indicated that the USA's economy
had not been completely extricated from its predicament. However, without the
recovery of USA's economy, our balance of payments may be adversely affected
since the USA is the major source of our favorable balance of trade.
(by Zhang Shengju)